This past week, members of the American media were given access to a confidential report by the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), which revealed Iran's expanding stock of uranium that has been dangerously close to weapons-grade levels—enriched to nearly 60% purity. Tensions in the area are rising as a result of pressing issues like unexplained uranium traces at secret sites and the reinstatement of surveillance cameras. The erratic nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington are also anticipated to come to a head next month.
The next phase of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), dubbed Transition Day and scheduled for October 18, 2023 - eight years after adoption of the agreement in 2015 - will usher in the removal of remaining nuclear-related sanctions, ballistic missile restrictions, and associated designations. Despite both parties deviating from the 2015 nuclear accord, certain provisions, including the impending expiration of specific measures, persist on autopilot.
The major Middle Eastern nations, including Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, see Iran's threat as a danger to the stability and prosperity of the region.
But as the JCPOA's provisions expire next month, the Middle East is still without a framework for regional multinational cooperation to address the looming nuclear threat.
With little success, the Biden administration has promoted the creation of a new multilateral framework in the area in an effort to steer the region in a new direction.
The Pentagon has correctly shifted resources and focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region under President Joe Biden.
However, this change has given rise to an abandonment narrative
Is America leaving the Middle East?
Regional military leaders have expressed concerns that American interest in and commitment to the Middle East has peaked or at the very least significantly diminished, forcing them to look elsewhere, in private conversations with senior US military leaders over the past year.
What other options were there to deal with the Iranian threat? After all, even the strongest possible sanctions were unable to stop Iran's most unstable behavior. It did, however, give the Biden administration momentum when combined with the Abraham Accords, which focused on a common worry about Iran.
Together, they created a chance to forge a regional alliance aimed at protecting against Iran's most harmful actions. The IAEA report from last week refutes the claim that the United States believed Iran could and would negotiate and act in good faith before the start of the new JCPOA negotiations.
Keeping a small contingent of a few thousand American soldiers would have improved regional security and demonstrated the country's ongoing commitment to the area. Given the timing and sentiment in the region, attempts at a fresh round of American-led nuclear negotiations also needed to be made more clear.
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